The Changing Global Order, U.S. Risk, and What Actually Matters for Portfolios

Recent headlines have once again turned toward a familiar theme: a shifting global order and declining trust in the United States, economically, politically, and diplomatically. These conversations tend to flare up during periods of geopolitical tension. While they shouldn’t be ignored, they also aren’t new. 

In one form or another, the “Sell America” narrative has resurfaced repeatedly over the past decade, often during politically charged moments rather than in response to lasting changes in economic fundamentals. The most recent version followed heightened rhetoric around Greenland, reviving concerns about U.S. global leadership and investor confidence. 

As is often the case, the story evolved quickly. Subsequent developments, including the announcement of the “Greenland Framework” and candid reassessments by European leaders regarding the economic consequences of overregulation and weak growth, have already begun to shift the conversation back toward relative U.S. strength. 

Markets have reflected this reality more clearly than headlines. Despite persistent claims of declining confidence or capital flight, the S&P 500 continues to trade near all-time highs, an outcome that is difficult to reconcile with the idea of a broad, sustained move away from U.S. assets. Similarly, the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield is currently at about 4.2%. This is not reflective of a sell-off in U.S.-issued debt. 

Trust does matter. When confidence in a country’s leadership, alliances, or fiscal discipline weakens, investors reassess risk. Some have argued that declining trust in U.S. leadership could push capital toward alternatives like gold or non-U.S. markets. 

There’s some logic to that view, but history suggests it only goes so far. 

In practice, global investors can reduce exposure to U.S. assets only at the margins. We believe there are few real substitutes for the depth, liquidity, legal protections, and concentration of high-quality businesses found in U.S. markets. That reality helps explain why many of the world’s most profitable and innovative companies remain based in the United States. 

At Summitry, we start from this distinction. We don’t invest based on political cycles or headlines. We invest in businesses, companies we find have durable demand, strong balance sheets, and the ability to operate across changing regulatory and geopolitical environments. 

One of the most important distinctions we make is between government-level risk and company-level risk. 

Concerns about U.S. debt, deficits, or Treasury demand don’t automatically translate into risks for the kinds of businesses we own. 

For example: 

• If demand for U.S. Treasuries falls and interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive. Many of the companies we invest in carry little to no debt, so higher rates don’t meaningfully impair their earnings power. 

• A weaker U.S. dollar is often framed as a negative, but it cuts both ways. While foreign earnings may translate into fewer dollars in the short term, U.S. companies can often become more competitive globally as a result. 

• Shifts in foreign demand for U.S. equities can affect valuations in the short run, but over time, strong businesses tend to follow earnings, not sentiment. 

Markets can move quickly. Businesses build value gradually. Our focus remains on the latter. 

None of this means risks are ignored. The ones that matter most are tangible, not rhetorical: 

• Sustained higher interest rates that pressure weaker, highly leveraged competitors, often benefiting well-capitalized firms. 

• Currency volatility that affects near-term reported results. 

• The possibility, still low but not zero, that geopolitical tensions spill over into regulatory actions or consumer behavior. 

These risks affect global companies broadly. They are not unique to U.S.-based firms, and they do not call for wholesale changes to a disciplined investment approach. 

Periods like this do not call for dramatic, fear-driven moves. They call for balance, patience, and flexibility. 

Summitry portfolios are built with that in mind. We hold cash intentionally, not as a reaction to headlines, but as a tool to manage volatility and act decisively when opportunities arise. Cash provides flexibility, and in uncertain environments, flexibility matters. 

For some clients, international exposure can also play a role depending on goals, strategy design, and eligibility. Where appropriate, Summitry offers international strategies that can complement U.S. holdings. These decisions are made thoughtfully, in conversation with your Advisor, not in response to sweeping declarations about “Sell America” or “Buy America.” 

Global leadership will continue to evolve. Political narratives will come and go. Markets will remain noisy. 

What tends to endure is a disciplined focus on high-quality businesses, thoughtful risk management, and a willingness to let time do the heavy lifting. That is the lens through which we view today’s headlines and the approach we will continue to take. 

We will keep monitoring risks and adjusting portfolios when fundamentals change, not when the story of the week does. This steady, business-first mindset is central to how Summitry manages risk and cares for our clients’ capital.